Tsunamis in the Philippines

Dear Mouse,

Sales people forecast their sales by looking at the past trends. Financial analysts make use of the past performance of the business in order to graph their expectations.

In all these exercises, the statistics are utilized to tell a story to come up with another story.

But how do you predict calamities? Can we do the same by using the pattern of the recorded events as to when and where they occurred?

Or do we just listen to the experts who warn the people after the calamity has already struck.

Although no one can tell the exact date, time and place when a calamity is going to strike, it also helps to see the recorded events in order to pinpoint at which places the calamities as earthquake and tsunamis struck the most number of times.

Do you know that there were 3005 recorded tsunamis all over the world ?

The tabular presentations below showed the parts of the three islands of the country that recorded the most number of tsunamis. The first column shows the date; second column, the location; 3rd column,lat/longtitude and the last is the intensity of the earthquake that caused the tsunami.

The most visited place of tsunamis is Western Luzon with 27 recorded events from 1627 to 1937. It is interesting to note that the last tsunami was in 1937 yet. Why did it stop? Is there any possibility that it is going to strike again in this region?

It has been sixty eight years since 1937. The longest time that there was no tsunami in Western Luzon was between 1824 and 1770 or a total of 54-tsunami free period.

Luzon Island

Table 1 W. Luzon

Date Location long./lat. Earthquke intensity

06-00-1627 W. LUZON ISLAND 11.000 123.500 n/a

09-14-1627 W. LUZON ISLAND 16.000 121.000 8.0

00-00-1628 W. LUZON ISLAND n/a n/a n/a

02-28-1638 W. LUZON ISLAND n/a n/a n/a

11-30-1645 W. LUZON ISLAND 14.400 121.000 n/a

12-05-1645 W. LUZON ISLAND n/a n/a n/a

12-07-1677 W. LUZON ISLAND 14.500 120.500 n/a

00-00-1744 W. LUZON ISLAND n/a n/a n/a

12-00-1770 W. LUZON ISLAND 14.200 121.000 n/a

10-26-1824 W. LUZON ISLAND 14.200 121.000 n/a

11-09-1828 W. LUZON ISLAND 14.200 121.000 7.5

01-18-1830 W. LUZON ISLAND n/a n/a n/a

09-16-1830 W. LUZON ISLAND n/a n/a n/a

09-16-1852 W. LUZON ISLAND 14.000 120.500 7.5

03-04-1862 W. LUZON ISLAND n/a n/a n/a

06-03-1863 W. LUZON ISLAND 14.500 121.000 6.5

07-14-1880 W. LUZON ISLAND n/a n/a n/a

09-23-1887 W. LUZON ISLAND n/a n/a n/a

12-08-1905 W. LUZON ISLAND 11.000 123.500 6.5

11-19-1915 W. LUZON ISLAND 10.000 119.500 6.4

02-27-1922 W. LUZON ISLAND 10.200 123.600 n/a

02-28-1922 W. LUZON ISLAND 10.200 124.100 6.3

06-02-1924 W. LUZON ISLAND 16.200 119.700 n/a

05-05-1925 W. LUZON ISLAND 9.300 122.700 6.8

05-25-1925 W. LUZON ISLAND 12.200 122.500 6.2

02-14-1934 W. LUZON ISLAND 17.600 119.000 7.6

08-20-1937 W. LUZON ISLAND 14.500 121.500 7.5

Eastern Luzon experienced seven tsunamis since 1735 to 1968. Note that in year 1735, there were two tsunamis recorded and another two in 1949. There is a big possibility that there may be another tsunami after 37 years. In 1949, two tsunamis struck the area after 48 years of its absence since 1901.

Table 2 E. Luzon

Date Location long./lat. Earth.

02-27-1735 E. LUZON ISLAND n/a n/a n/a

12-00-1735 E. LUZON ISLAND n/a n/a n/a

07-18-1880 E. LUZON ISLAND 15.000 121.500 n/a

09-10-1901 E. LUZON ISLAND 14.000 122.300 7.0

09-05-1949 E. LUZON ISLAND 18.600 122.000 n/a

12-29-1949 E. LUZON ISLAND 18.000 121.000 7.2

01-08-1968 E. LUZON ISLAND 16.500 122.200 7.3

Taal Islands in Luzon recorded seven tsunamis since 1716 .The last one was in 1965.

This is the most unpredictable region when it comes to tsunami occurence. After 162 years of dormancy since 1749, tsunami was recorded in 1911.

Table 3 Taal, Luzon

Date Location long./lat. Earth.

09-24-1716 Taal, LUZON I. 14.000 121.000 n/a

05-13-1745 Taal, LUZON I. 14.000 121.000 n/a

08-11-1749 Taal, LUZON I. 14.000 121.000 n/a

01-27-1911 Taal, LUZON I. 14.000 121.000 n/a

09-28-1965 Taal, LUZON I. 14.000 121.000 n/a

09-28-1965 Taal, LUZON I. 14.000 121.000 n/a

08-17-1983 LUZON ISLAND 18.200 120.900 6.5

Visayas Islands

In the Visayas Islands, Samar was the only island/province that had a record of tsunamis.The first one was in 1747, followed by one in 1933 and two tsunamis in 1995.

Table 4 Samar, Visayas

Date Location long./lat. Earth.

07-00-1747 SAMAR, Visayas n/a n/a n/a

12-25-1933 SAMAR, Visayas 12.800 124.000 n/a

04-21-1995 SAMAR, Visayas 12.100 125.600 6.3

04-21-1995 SAMAR, Visayas 12.100 125.900 7.3

Mindanao Islands

In the Mindanao region, Sulu Sea was the place most visited by tsunamis. Since 1910, there were 14 events recorded, However, the last tsunami was in 1948.

Table 5 Sulu Sea

Date Location long./lat. Earth.

06-00-1653 SULU SEA n/a n/a n/a

02-00-1675 SULU SEA n/a n/a n/a

03-00-1675 SULU SEA 13.400 121.000 n/a

10-13-1865 SULU SEA n/a n/a n/a

05-25-1889 SULU SEA 13.500 121.000 n/a

05-26-1889 SULU SEA 13.500 121.000 n/a

12-30-1910 SULU SEA 9.000 125.600 6.2

01-03-1922 SULU SEA 9.000 123.200 6.0

07-18-1923 SULU SEA 9.500 125.200 5.5

11-25-1925 SULU SEA 9.500 125.200 5.5

06-15-1928 SULU SEA 12.400 120.900 7.0

05-07-1939 SULU SEA 13.500 121.200 6.5

01-24-1948 SULU SEA 10.500 122.000 6.5

01-25-1948 SULU SEA 10.600 122.000 8.2

Philippines Trench comes second with 7 tsunamis from 1911 to 1975.

Table 6 Philippine Trench

Date Location long./lat. Earth.

07-12-1911 PHIL.TRENCH 9.000 126.000 7.7

03-14-1913 PHIL.TRENCH 4.500 126.500 8.3

11-11-1921 PHIL.TRENCH 8.000 127.000 7.5

04-14-1924 PHIL.TRENCH 6.500 126.500 8.3

01-10-1970 PHIL.TRENCH 6.800 126.700 7.3

09-30-1970 PHIL.TRENCH 20.600 122.000 5.3

10-31-1975 PHIL.TRENCH 12.500 126.000 7.6

The whole island of Mindanao experienced five big earthquakes that caused tsunamis, the latest of which was in 2002.

Table 7 Mindanao

Date Location long./lat. Earth.

01-02-1919 MINDANAO IS. 8.000 126.000 7.4

12-02-1972 MINDANAO IS. 6.400 126.600 7.4

06-14-1978 MINDANAO IS. 8.200 122.400 6.9

04-04-1990 MINDANAO IS. 15.1000 147.600 7.5

03-05-2002 MINDANAO IS. 6.030 124.250 7.2

E.Mindanao had the same number of tsunamis from 1921 to 1952.

Table 8 E.Mindanao

Date Location long./lat. Earth.

12-11-1921 E. MINDANAO 8.000 127.000 7.5

04-15-1924 E. MINDANAO 6.600 126.600 8.3

08-30-1924 E. MINDANAO 8.500 126.500 7.2

09-13-1929 E. MINDANAO 8.500 127.000 7.2

03-19-1952 E. MINDANAO 9.400 127.200 7.9

01-26-2000 TAWI-TAWI IS. 5.100 120.150 n/a

08-16-1976 MORO GULF 6.300 124.000 n/a

05-00-1990 CAMIGUIN IS. n/a n/a n/a

Tsunamis without specific places hit were recorded to have struck the Philippines 16 times since 1749 to 1995 including the two in Philippine Sea.

Table 9 Philippines

Date Location long./lat. Earth.

PHILIPPINES (NO SPECIFIC PLACE)

08-12-1749 PHILIPPINES 13.600 121.100 n/a

10-19-1865 PHILIPPINES 13.300 123.400 n/a

10-19-1897 PHILIPPINES 6.500 122.000 6.5

02-00-1903 PHILIPPINES 13.000 145.000 n/a

06-09-1909 PHILIPPINES n/a n/a n/a

11-12-1921 PHILIPPINES 8.000 127.000 7.5

12-26-1933 PHILIPPINES n/a n/a n/a

06-19-1935 PHILIPPINES 12.500 125.000 7.2

08-23-1936 PHILIPPINES 6.100 95.000 7.3

09-05-1949 PHILIPPINES 17.000 121.500 6.0

11-05-1949 PHILIPPINES 17.000 121.500 6.0

08-17-1976 PHILIPPINES 7.900 123.400 6.8

05-17-1992 PHILIPPINES 7.200 126.700 7.5

05-15-1995 PHILIPPINES 12.600 125.300 7.0

11-13-1925 PHILIPPINE SEA 13.000 125.000 7.2

04-07-1970 PHILIPPINE SEA 15.800 121.700 6.5

Source of unprocessed data:tsunami database

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